{"id":25435,"date":"2026-09-08T10:08:52","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T07:08:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kvarken.org\/?p=25435"},"modified":"2026-09-08T11:33:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T08:33:09","slug":"new-analysis-shows-the-conditions-for-financing-infrastructure-such-as-the-nordic-connector","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kvarken.org\/en\/new-analysis-shows-the-conditions-for-financing-infrastructure-such-as-the-nordic-connector\/","title":{"rendered":"New analysis shows the conditions for financing infrastructure such as the Nordic Connector"},"content":{"rendered":"

The financing analysis is one of two new reports presented at a seminar organized by the Kvarken Council EGTC and the Finnish-Swedish Chamber of Commerce on 13 August. It was developed within the FLINC project, co-financed by Interreg Aurora, with the Kvarken Council EGTC as the project owner.<\/p>\n

Anders Jungar<\/strong>, Manager at PBI, presented the analysis, which complements the Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency’s 2025 feasibility study with financing perspectives, risk analysis and guidance on EU funding.<\/p>\n

More than a bridge<\/h2>\n

A central starting point is that the Nordic Connector should not be treated as an isolated bridge project. The report describes the initiative as a programme investment that could include the fixed link, connecting transport infrastructure on land, and potential connections for electricity transmission, hydrogen, and data.<\/p>\n

The different components could be organized and financed in different ways. This could strengthen the overall conditions for the programme and make it possible to seek funding from multiple sources.<\/p>\n

The analyzed connection is an approximately 94-kilometre-long surface road connection. The lowest estimate of the initial investment is EUR 4.9 billion, but the report emphasizes that this is a low estimate that does not include any contingencies.<\/p>\n

Five financial scenarios<\/h2>\n

PBI analysed five scenarios over a 50-year operating period following construction. The assumptions vary with regard to investment cost, construction time, interest rates, EU subsidies, state capital, traffic volumes and toll levels, among other factors.<\/p>\n

The traffic assumptions in the scenarios are based on the Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency’s 2025 needs assessment for a fixed connection across the Kvarken.<\/p>\n

In the three more cautious scenarios, the financial result is negative. In the favourable scenario, the present value amounts to approximately EUR 2.1 billion, and the debt could be repaid after approximately 31 years of operation. In the optimistic scenario, the present value is approximately 3.4 billion euros, with a payback period of around 21 years.<\/p>\n

The positive scenarios are not based on a single solution. They assume a combination of lower investment costs, low financing costs, sufficient traffic, EU subsidies of 18 percent and state capital of 10\u201320 percent. The highest tolls analysed are EUR 85 for a passenger car and EUR 250 for a heavy vehicle.<\/p>\n

The analysis shows that Nordic Connector could become financially viable when traffic revenues are combined with EU subsidies, state capital and favourable financing terms.<\/p>\n

Financial viability and socio-economic value are different issues<\/h2>\n

The report makes an important distinction between financial viability and socio-economic value.<\/p>\n

The fact that traffic tolls would not be enough to finance the entire investment does not mean that the project could not be socio-economically and strategically justifiable. Large-scale transport infrastructure is rarely fully financed by its users. The crucial question is therefore not only the costs of the infrastructure or the direct revenue it generates, but also the economic, logistical, regional and security benefits that can be achieved \u2013 and whether these justify the public investment required.<\/p>\n

The financing report analyses how the Nordic Connector could be financed and organized but does not assess the extent of the project’s regional, economic and security benefits. These issues are addressed in other work packages within FLINC. The analysis of military mobility has been completed, while work on the broader regional and economic impacts is still ongoing. Together, the analyses provide a broader knowledge base for the continued assessment of the Nordic Connector.<\/p>\n

Joint project company proposed<\/h2>\n

PBI recommends that the Nordic Connector be organized through a joint publicly owned project company for Finland and Sweden, a so-called Special Purpose Vehicle. The model has similarities with the organization behind the \u00d6resund bridge.<\/p>\n

State ownership, guarantees and capital are considered crucial, while private actors can primarily participate in construction, operation and maintenance.<\/p>\n

The report identifies three prioritized next steps:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Clarify the possibilities for EU funding together with CINEA.<\/li>\n
  2. Work to ensure that the Nordic Connector and central nodes, including the Port of Vaasa, are included in the TEN-T network.<\/li>\n
  3. Deepen bilateral discussions between Finland and Sweden on governance, risk sharing and a joint project company.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The European Commission’s proposal for the next CEF program for 2028\u20132034 comprises EUR 51.5 billion for transport, of which EUR 17.5 billion is proposed for military mobility. For infrastructure with a clear civil and military function, the level of subsidies may be higher than for conventional transport infrastructure.<\/p>\n

    The funding window is therefore important. However, the report’s conclusion is clear: the way forward requires both European funding and a long-term joint commitment from Finland and Sweden.<\/p>\n

    Read also the article about the bottlenecks in the transport system in the northern Nordic region and the potential importance of the Nordic Connector for military mobility and civil preparedness.<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

    Facts:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    The seminar was organized by the Kvarken Council EGTC within the framework of the FLINC project, together with the Finnish-Swedish Chamber of Commerce, during the Wasa Future Festival on 13 August, 2026. A total of 290 people attended the seminar. It was moderated by Sarah V\u00e4re, Growth Manager at the Kvarken Council EGTC.<\/em><\/p>\n

    FLINC, Financing Large-scale Infrastructure \u2013 Case Nordic Connector, is a project co-financed by Interreg Aurora and led by the Kvarken Council EGTC. The project produces a knowledge base on financing, regional effects, military mobility and security of supply in connection to the Nordic Connector. The results can also be used in work on other large cross-border infrastructure projects.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Links<\/strong><\/p>\n