When infrastructure is tested under pressure
For businesses across the northern Nordics, reliable east–west transport connections are an everyday operational necessity. In an era of heightened security awareness, the same infrastructure that keeps supply chains moving must also meet growing demands for military mobility and resilience.
Fellesrådet for Tröndelag and Jämtland Härjedalen, MidtSkandia and the Kvarken Council have jointly commissioned a study to examine how transport networks across a wide east–west corridor – from the Norwegian Atlantic coast through Jämtland and Västernorrland to Central Finland – can handle the combined demands of civilian and military mobility. The work forms part of Work Package 3 within FLINC and is carried out by Risk Intelligence A/S.
How the network performs under pressure
The analysis examines how existing transport infrastructure performs under three scenarios, ranging from limited disruption to a serious crisis.
A central question is whether the same network can support both civilian and military needs simultaneously under pressure. The analysis examines where bottlenecks emerge and what would be required to keep critical flows moving across the different scenarios.
The work takes a system perspective rather than focusing on individual investments. It examines how disruptions affect the network, how dependencies between transport modes influence performance and how alternative routes can support continuity across the region.
“Many recent studies have focused on individual parts of the logistics chain, such as port capacity or the availability of the road network. Here, we instead examine how the entire multimodal transport system functions under different scenarios, says Robin Häggblom, project manager at Risk Intelligence A/S.
What the analysis aims to clarify
“There is a tendency to underestimate the scale of the demands placed on the transport infrastructure by large-scale military movements. It is also important to understand that these demands come on top of the civilian usage of the same network. Even during a major crisis, society will still depend on transport capacity for critical goods and services, trade flows, industry and everyday functions,” Häggblom adds.
Robin Häggblom, Project Manager at Risk Intelligence A/S, analyses how cross-border transport infrastructure functions under different disruption and crisis scenarios.
“The Nordic axis west to east through mid Norway-Sweden-Finland has a central role to play. With this study we want to understand how our cross-border infrastructure would perform in times of crisis and where it needs to be strengthened to serve our common responsibility,” says Anna Halvarsson, Director at Fellesrådet for Tröndelag and Jämtland Härjedalen.
“For MidtSkandia, this is fundamentally about cross-border cooperation and our shared responsibility for security and preparedness in the region. Robust east–west connections are essential not only for business and everyday mobility, but also for ensuring that Norway, Sweden and Finland can act together effectively in times of crisis. This analysis helps us better understand how to strengthen that resilience,” says Allan Berg, Coordinator, MidtSkandia.
“The security dimension as an important part of the wider benefit analysis reinforces what the financing study and the other wider benefits effects also show, namely that the case for Nordic Connector cannot be reduced to a single calculation. It is also a question of what kind of region we want to be part of and how we prepare for the future,” says Mathias Lindström, Director at the Kvarken Council EGTC.
The first draft of the analysis is expected during spring 2026, with the final report planned for delivery during the summer.
Background
The Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency’s feasibility study, completed in June 2025 together with the Swedish Transport Administration, confirmed that a fixed link across the Kvarken Strait is technically feasible. The study assessed implementation options, construction costs and traffic impacts, and identified military mobility as a key benefit of such a connection. It did not, however, analyse the broader security and preparedness needs of the transport network in depth. This study addresses that gap directly, extending the scope to the east-west corridor across Norway, Sweden and Finland. In March 2026, Nordic transport ministers committed to strengthening cross-border preparedness cooperation and identified east-west corridors across the northern Nordics as a strategic priority, further underlining the relevance of this analysis.
Read more: regjeringen.no/id3151848
Join the discussion
You are welcome to join us at Wasa Future Festival, where ongoing work on the financing and security-related dimensions of cross-border infrastructure will be presented. The session “The Nordics tomorrow – growth despite global tensions” will take place on Thursday 13 August 2026, from 13:00 to 16:15, at Mindsquare, Wasa Innovation Center, Vaasa. The programme will be held in Finnish and Swedish.
Work related to the financing dimension of large-scale cross-border infrastructure will also be presented at Almedalsveckan 2026.
This study is carried out by: Risk Intelligence A/S on behalf of the Kvarken Council EGTC, Fellesrådet for Tröndelag and Jämtland Härjedalen and MidtSkandia.
FLINC (Financing Large-scale Infrastructure – Nordic Connector) is an Interreg Aurora project co-funded by the European Union and coordinated by the Kvarken Council EGTC. The project develops analytical methods for assessing large-scale cross-border infrastructure in the Nordic region, using the Nordic Connector as a reference case. This military mobility study forms part of FLINC and is also co-financed by Fellesrådet for Tröndelag and Jämtland Härjedalen and MidtSkandia, reflecting a shared interest in east-west preparedness across Norway, Sweden and Finland perform under pressure. Read more: kvarken.org/en/project/flinc
Read more about FLINC: kvarken.org/en/project/flinc
This article is part of a FLINC series presenting ongoing analyses ahead of the final results, including work on financing and wider societal impacts of cross-border infrastructure.
