When toll revenues are not enough – what a fixed link across Kvarken actually requires
Large-scale cross-border transport infrastructure is rarely fully self-financing through user charges, especially in sparsely populated regions. The same applies to the Nordic Connector, a proposed fixed link across the Kvarken Strait between Finland and Sweden, which is highlighted as one way to strengthen resilience, accessibility and growth in the Nordic region. Investments of this scale are instead typically justified by broader socio-economic and strategic benefits. The same challenge also applies to other large-scale infrastructure projects in sparsely populated cross-border regions.
The analysis carried out within the FLINC project builds on the Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency’s (FTIA) feasibility study, completed in 2025 in cooperation with the Swedish Transport Administration, which assessed six technically viable implementation options with estimated total costs ranging from approximately 5 to 29 billion euros.
What the analysis shows so far
The ongoing analysis examines how large-scale cross-border infrastructure could be financed in regions where traffic volumes alone are unlikely to make investments financially self-sustaining.
“The feasibility study showed that a fixed link is technically feasible and assessed its costs. It left the critical questions unanswered: how an investment of this scale can be financed and what wider societal benefits it actually generates. These are the questions that determine whether large-scale cross-border infrastructure investments such as the Nordic Connector can be realised”, says Mathias Lindström, Director of the Kvarken Council EGTC and project manager of FLINC.
Emil Holmberg, Junior Analyst and Anders Jungar, senior consultant at PBI Research Institute Oy, works on analyses of financing models and financial sustainability within the FLINC project.
The analysis indicates that Nordic Connector should be viewed as a broader long-term programme investment rather than a single stand-alone transport investment. One option currently being assessed is a jointly owned project company, similar to the structures used for the Öresund Bridge and the Fehmarn Belt connection.
Financial modelling of the fixed link itself, based on input from FTIA’s study, indicates that reduced capital expenditure, access to EU co-financing, favourable lending conditions and higher-than-forecast traffic demand would improve the investment’s long-term financial sustainability.
“Our financial modelling shows that the investment can become sustainable, but the conditions must be right: cost reduction, EU co-financing, favourable financing terms from lenders, and traffic demand that exceeds current forecasts. None of these are guaranteed, but none are completely out of reach either. Final results will be presented to the FLINC Steering Group in June 2026”, says Anders Jungar, senior consultant at PBI.
The study also underlines the importance of distinguishing between bankability and societal value. The fixed link could generate wider economic impacts and strategic benefits related to military mobility and security of supply. These impacts do not translate into direct revenues for the jointly owned project company but provide the primary justification for public funding and EU co-financing.
The key decision question is therefore not only whether the fixed link can finance itself through user tolls, but whether its wider economic and strategic benefits are sufficient to justify the required public investment. Wider societal and security benefits are analysed separately within Work package 3 of FLINC. This work remains ongoing.
What needs to happen next
From a financing perspective, PBI’s analysis points to concrete next steps such as securing TEN-T status for the Nordic Connector and nodes along its route, as well as advancing bilateral discussions between Finland and Sweden on governance, risk sharing, and a joint project company structure.
Final results will be presented to the FLINC Steering Group in June 2026 and published in full later this year.
Join the discussion
You are welcome to join us at Wasa Future Festival, where ongoing work on the financing and security-related dimensions of cross-border infrastructure will be presented. The session “The Nordics tomorrow – growth despite global tensions” will take place on Thursday 13 August 2026, from 13:00 to 16:15, at Mindsquare, Wasa Innovation Center, Vaasa. The programme will be held in Finnish and Swedish.
Work related to the financing dimension of large-scale cross-border infrastructure will also be presented at Almedalsveckan 2026.
About the FLINC project
Work Package 1 is carried out by: PBI Research Institute Oy on behalf of the Kvarken Council EGTC
FLINC (Financing Large-scale Infrastructure – Nordic Connector) is an Interreg Aurora project co-funded by the European Union and coordinated by the Kvarken Council EGTC. The project uses Nordic Connector as a reference case. Within Nordic Connector, the proposed fixed link across the Kvarken Strait between Finland and Sweden is highlighted as one way to strengthen resilience, accessibility and growth in the Nordic region. FLINC develops knowledge and methods for assessing cross-border infrastructure at Nordic and European level.
Read more about FLINC: kvarken.org/en/project/flinc
This article is part of a FLINC series presenting ongoing analyses ahead of the final results. Other articles in the series present wider societal impacts and security-related dimensions of cross-border infrastructure.
