The Baltic Sea’s New Role After NATO Enlargement

Security policy shifted for the entire Nordic region when Finland and Sweden joined NATO. The 95 million tonnes of goods that pass through the region’s ports each year may now face new challenges from hybrid operations in the Baltic Sea. ”Geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting”, noted defense analyst Robin Häggblom at a seminar held in connection with the Kvarken Council’s Annual General Meeting.

Robin Häggblom, Master of Science (Engineering) and independent defense analyst behind the military blog Corporal Frisk, works as Senior Advisor at the Danish company Risk Intelligence. He described a changing world where established conditions are shifting.

U.S. policy under Donald Trump is an important factor behind today’s uncertainty, even though American voters have consistently voted for candidates advocating a smaller global role for the U.S. for the past 25 years.

“Trump is in some ways a logical, populist endpoint of a trend that has been building for a long time”, Häggblom observed.

At the same time, the economic center of gravity is shifting toward Asia, and conflicts on one side of the world now have ripple effects globally due to globalization. From Gaza to the Houthis’ missile war in the Red Sea, many conflicts today lack clear, concrete end goals.

“It’s very difficult to predict where this will end”, he said.

Another factor influencing today’s security policy is nuclear weapons and the so-called ”stability-instability paradox”; while nuclear weapons reduce the risk of major power wars, they create instability by providing a shield for lower-level conflicts. Interest in nuclear weapons is growing around the world, partly because confidence in the U.S. nuclear umbrella has been ”somewhat shaken”.

Robin Häggblom, Master of Science (Engineering) and independent defense analyst behind the military blog Corporal Frisk, works as Senior Advisor at the Danish company Risk Intelligence. In Sundsvall, he presented an analysis of the changing security situation in Europe and its implications for the Kvarken region.

From National Defense to Allied Force

According to Häggblom, NATO membership has reshaped the security map of the entire Nordic region.

“The Swedish Armed Forces’ primary task is no longer to stop an invasion fleet coming across the Baltic Sea toward Gotland or the Swedish coast”, he explained.

“Now the task is to defend the Baltics or northern Finland together with allies and to maintain control of the Baltic Sea.”

In this context, the Baltic Sea presents a central challenge. Häggblom stressed the sea’s enormous importance – Finland’s ports handle about 95 million tonnes of goods annually, accounting for roughly 85 percent of the country’s imports and exports.

“It’s hard to overstate the Baltic Sea’s importance to our societies”, he noted.

At the same time, this works both ways: 55 percent of Russia’s exports of gas and oil go through the Baltic Sea, representing between 15–30 percent of the total value of the Russian federal state budget.

Ongoing Hybrid Operations in the Baltic Sea

According to Häggblom, Russia has begun using hybrid operations to influence Western trade. This includes exercise zones that disrupt commercial shipping and boarding of vessels. As an example, he mentioned recent operations against an Estonian tanker in the Gulf of Finland.

The next step on the escalation scale could be naval mines, which are difficult to trace back but capable of impacting shipping even in small quantities.

If a crisis were to occur, it would not be possible to quickly reroute logistics flows away from the Baltic Sea.

“95 million tonnes in Finnish ports alone. Nowhere do we see such numbers of trucks, truck drivers or railcars standing idle and ready to take over”, Häggblom explained.

Commercial shipping is simply too efficient to maintain spare capacity. For Sweden, not only Gothenburg (the largest port) would be affected; even ports such as Sundsvall require crossing the Baltic Sea for transports going beyond Kalix.

Häggblom pointed out that shipping reacts differently in times of crisis. In Ukraine, some shipping continues despite the war, whereas shipping companies in the Red Sea are opting for longer detours to avoid Houthi missile attacks.

“Container shipping lines currently have relatively good flexibility to introduce slightly longer routes, he noted, but emphasized that certain flows will inevitably be redirected during a crisis.”

Firstly, vessels will choose alternative routes if they perceive a risk. Secondly, demand will drop as transport costs rise. The first step for authorities will be to try to ensure that logistics flows continue as normally as possible even in a crisis. This explains why both the Finnish and Swedish navies are planning larger vessel classes to better escort merchant ships.

Häggblom’s presentation demonstrated that the Kvarken region and the Nordic region as a whole face new security conditions following NATO enlargement. In particular, Finland’s economy depends heavily on logistics chains across the Baltic Sea, which presents challenges in the evolving security environment.

Follow Robin’s analyses here.

The Kvarken Council’s Annual General Meeting and seminar 2025 offered analyses, networking, and concrete future topics for the region.